Manifold

Manifold is a prediction market platform. ingestr supports Manifold as a public read-only source for markets, probabilities, bets, comments, groups, users, public portfolio metrics, transactions, leagues, and boost history.

No API key is required for the supported tables.

URI format

manifold://

Optional URI parameters are passed to supported API filters. Examples:

• manifold://?userId=<user-id>
• manifold://?username=<username>
• manifold://?market_id=<market-id>
• manifold://?contract_slug=<market-slug>
• manifold://?groupId=<group-id>
• manifold://?term=bitcoin

How it works

ingestr reads the public Manifold API at:

https://api.manifold.markets

Each --source-table maps to one public endpoint. Rows include selected stable columns plus a raw JSON column containing the full source payload. Manifold timestamps are Unix milliseconds; ingestr converts timestamp columns to its standard timestamp type.

Interval behavior

Quick summary: intervals are creation-time filters for the Manifold tables that support them. For bets and transactions, both start and end are sent to the API. For search_markets and groups, only --interval-end is sent, so the request asks for items created before that time.

Important: using an incremental strategy with intervals for market discovery can miss markets that were created outside the interval but updated inside it. Manifold market responses include update timestamps, and the markets endpoint can sort by updated-time, but it does not provide updated-time start/end filters. A reliable update-time sync would need to request markets sorted by updated-time, page through results, and filter the returned rows client-side.

When the endpoint supports server-side time filtering, ingestr pushes intervals into the API call:

Table	API interval params
bets	afterTime, beforeTime as Unix milliseconds. These filter bet creation time.
transactions	after, before as Unix milliseconds. These filter transaction creation time.
search_markets	beforeTime from --interval-end as Unix milliseconds. This is a market created-time pagination cursor for sort=newest; --interval-start is not pushed down.
groups	beforeTime from --interval-end as Unix milliseconds. This filters group/topic creation time; --interval-start is not pushed down.

Tables not listed above do not have a documented API-side time filter, so intervals are not pushed down for those tables.

Example

ingestr ingest \
  --source-uri 'manifold://?term=bitcoin&sort=newest' \
  --source-table search_markets \
  --dest-uri 'duckdb:///manifold.duckdb' \
  --dest-table manifold.search_markets

Bets with interval pushdown:

ingestr ingest \
  --source-uri 'manifold://?contractSlug=<market-slug>' \
  --source-table bets \
  --interval-start '2025-01-01' \
  --interval-end '2030-01-01' \
  --dest-uri 'duckdb:///manifold.duckdb' \
  --dest-table manifold.bets

Market probabilities for multiple markets use repeated ids URI parameters:

ingestr ingest \
  --source-uri 'manifold://?ids=<market-id-1>&ids=<market-id-2>' \
  --source-table market_probabilities \
  --dest-uri 'duckdb:///manifold.duckdb' \
  --dest-table manifold.market_probabilities

Tables

Table	Required URI params	Optional URI params	PK	Inc Key	Details
markets	-	sort, order, userId, groupId	id	createdTime	Public market list. Returns ids, slug, question, creator fields, outcome type, lifecycle timestamps, probability/volume fields, and raw.
search_markets	-	term, sort, filter, creatorId, contractType, topicSlug, minLiquidity, maxLiquidity	id	createdTime	Search/filter markets. Supports interval end as beforeTime.
market_by_id	market_id	-	id	-	Full market by id.
market_by_slug	contract_slug	-	id	-	Full market by slug.
market_probability	market_id	-	-	-	Current probability for one market. Multiple choice markets return answer probabilities in raw.
market_probabilities	ids	-	-	-	Current probabilities for up to 100 market ids. Repeat ids in the URI for multiple markets.
market_positions	market_id	order, top, bottom, userId, answerId	-	-	Position information for one market.
bets	-	userId, username, contractId, contractSlug, kinds, order	id	createdTime	Public bets. Supports interval pushdown.
comments	-	contractId, contractSlug, userId, order	id	createdTime	Public comments.
groups	-	availableToUserId	id	createdTime	Public groups/topics. Supports interval end as beforeTime.
group_by_slug	group_slug	-	-	-	One group by slug.
group_by_id	group_id	-	-	-	One group by id.
users	-	-	id	-	Public users.
user_by_username	username	-	id	-	Public user by username.
user_by_id	user_id	-	id	-	Public user by id.
user_portfolio	userId	-	-	-	Current public portfolio metrics for a user.
user_portfolio_history	userId, period	-	timestamp	timestamp	Historical portfolio metrics. period is daily, weekly, monthly, or allTime.
user_contract_metrics	userId	order, perAnswer	-	-	User contract metrics with market contracts.
transactions	-	token, toId, fromId, category	id	createdTime	Public transactions. Supports interval pushdown.
leagues	-	userId, season, cohort	-	-	Public league standings.
boost_history	-	contractId, postId, userId, includePending	id	createdTime	Contract and post boost history.

Notes

• A practical smoke-test flow is: ingest markets, use a returned id or slug for market detail/probability/bets/comments, ingest users, then use a returned id or username for user and portfolio tables.
• market_probabilities expects repeated ids parameters for multiple markets. A single comma-separated ids value is sent as one string and is rejected by the Manifold API.
• boost_history may return no rows for many markets. The Manifold API response is wrapped in a boosts array, so empty boost history should be expected for ordinary markets.
• When loading into DuckDB, --schema-naming direct is currently the safest option for Manifold tables with camelCase columns such as createdTime, userId, and contractId.
• raw is a JSON column containing the full API object.
• Manifold's public API documents a rate limit of 500 requests per minute per IP.
• Authenticated write endpoints for betting, market creation, comments, liquidity, bounty, selling, resolving, and moderation are not supported.